木鱼包滑坡变形与库水位相关性定量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Correlation between Deformation and Reservoir Water Level of Muyubao Landslide

为研究库水位高程、降雨量对三峡木鱼包滑坡变形的影响,分别从定性与定量的角度分析了位移数据与库水位高程数据、降雨量数据之间的相关性。通过对长期监测数据的定性分析,认为水位高程是影响木鱼包滑坡变形的主要因素,并根据滑坡变形速率的大小将变形过程划分为3个阶段;对多年月监测数据的计算得出滑坡的位移量数据与2个月前的水位高程数据之间的斯皮尔曼相关系数的均值最大,为0.409(中等正相关),而与任意时期的降雨量数据之间的相关系数几乎小于0.2;日监测数据的计算得出滞后期为40 d时滑坡变形数据与库水位高程数据之间的相关系数的均值最大,为0.622(强正相关)。综上可知木鱼包滑坡变形对库水位变动的响应较为明显,并且在时间上存在约40 d的滞后期,而降雨量对木鱼包滑坡变形的影响并不明显。本文所取得结论与其他学者对木鱼包滑坡的认识基本一致,说明相关性的定量计算能够在滑坡变形影响因素方面的研究提供一定的科学依据。

In order to study the influence of reservoir water level and rainfall on the deformation of Muyubao Landslide in the Three Gorges,the correlation between displacement data and water level elevation and rainfall was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively.Through the qualitative analysis of the long-term monitoring data,it was considered that the water level was the main factor affecting the deformation of Muyubao Landslide,and the deformation process was divided into three stages according to the deformation rate of the landslide.According to the calculation of monthly monitoring data for many years,it was found that the average value of Spelman correlation coefficient between landslide displacement and water level elevation two months ago was the largest,which is 0.409(moderate positive correlation),while the correlation coefficient between landslide displacement and rainfall in any period was almost less than 0.2.The calculation of daily monitoring shows that when the lag period is 40 days,the average correlation coefficient between landslide deformation and reservoir water level is the largest,which is 0.622(strong positive correlation).To sum up,the response of Muyubao landslide deformation to the change of reservoir water level is obvious,and there is a lag period of about 40 days in time,but the effect of rainfall on Muyubao landslide deformation is not obvious.The conclusion of this paper is basically consistent with other scholars'understanding of Muyubao landslide,indicating that the quantitative calculation of correlation can provide a certain scientific basis for the study of the influencing factors of landslide deformation.