基于博弈变权-云模型的配电网设备精益运维多属性评价

Multi-attribute Evaluation on Lean Operation and Maintenance of Distribution Network Equipment Based on Game Variable Weight Cloud Model

随着国家加快经济发展方式转变和产业结构调整,对配电网精准投资、精益运维提出了新的要求。重点研究了配电网设备运维评价的问题,结合全寿命周期、技术经济等相关理论,考虑状态、成本、效率等构建了一个设备运维多属性评价指标体系,通过相容矩阵分析、G1、改进CRITIC(criteria importance though intercrieria correlation)三种方法计算指标权重,采用合作博弈理论得到组合权重,为了使评价结果更符合配电网高可靠性的要求引入均衡函数修正常权。然后,针对配电网设备运维的模糊性及随机性构建了云模型进行综合评价。实例分析表明:博弈变权和云模型在配电网设备运维评价中具有直观、有效的优点,兼顾了配电网设备的模糊性和不确定性,能够为配电网精准投资、精益运维提供科学可靠的决策依据。

As the country accelerates the transformation of economic development mode and industrial structure adjustment,new requirements are put forward for accurate investment and lean operation and maintenance of distribution network.The evaluation of distribution network equipment operation and maintenance is focused.Combined with the life cycle,technology and economy theory,a multi-attribute evaluation index system of equipment operation and maintenance was constructed considering the state,cost and efficiency.The index weight was calculated by compatibility matrix analysis,G1 and improved CRITIC(criteria importance though intercrieria correlation),and the combined weight was obtained by cooperative game theory.In order to make the evaluation results more in line with the requirements of high reliability of distribution network,the constant weight was modified by equilibrium function.Then,aiming at the fuzziness and randomness of distribution network equipment operation and maintenance,a cloud model was constructed for comprehensive evaluation.The case analysis shows these as follows.Game variable weight and cloud model have intuitive and effective advantages in the evaluation of distribution network equipment operation and maintenance,taking into account the fuzziness and uncertainty of distribution network equipment,and can provide scientific and reliable decision-making basis for accurate investment and lean operation and maintenance of distribution network.