湖南省CO_(2)排放达峰情景预测研究

Prediction of CO_(2) Emission Peak Scenario in Hunan Province

文章以能源系数法核算湖南省2010—2017年的CO_(2)排放,运用LMDI分解法识别湖南省CO_(2)排放的影响因素,然后在此基础上根据湖南省城镇化率、人均GDP、能源结构和产业结构在不同减排压力下发生的变化速率设置8种情景,利用STIRPAT模型预测8种情景下湖南省2017—2050年的CO_(2)排放量。研究发现,湖南省预计将在2027年达峰,峰值为31825.60万吨,但最小峰值30363.98万吨将在2030年出现,出现了提前达峰还是最小峰值达峰的抉择。此外,在情景比较中发现,非化石能源的消耗占比和第二产业占比对达峰值影响较大,故湖南省在碳达峰策略制定中应考虑提高非化石能源的消耗占比,降低高耗能、高污染的第二产业比重,进一步加快发展第三产业。

This paper uses the energy coefficient method to calculate the CO_(2) emissions of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2017,uses the LMDI decomposition method to identify the influencing factors of CO_(2) emissions in Hunan Province,and then on this basis,according to the urbanization rate,per capita GDP,energy structure and industrial structure in different reductions,eight scenarios are set for the rate of change under the emission pressure,and the CO_(2) emissions of Hunan Province from 2017 to 2050 under the eight scenarios are predicted using the STIRPAT model.It was found that Hunan Province will reach its peak in 2027 at the earliest,with a peak of 318.2560 million tons,but the smallest peak of 303.6398 million tons will appear in 2030.In addition,in the scenario comparison,it was found that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption and the proportion of the secondary industry had a greater impact on peaking.Therefore,in the formulation of carbon peak strategy,Hunan Province should consider increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption,reduce the proportion of the secondary industry with high energy consumption and high pollution,and further accelerate the development of the tertiary industry.