2020/2021榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2021/2022榨季展望

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2020/2021 Crushing Season and Their Prospect for 2021/2022 Crushing Season

受巴西、泰国、欧盟减产影响,2020/2021榨季国际食糖产量下降了0.99%,各国经济复苏带动食糖消费稳中有增,全球食糖产需缺口估计为300万t~420万t。由于种植面积增加、大多数区域天气良好和收购价格稳定,国内食糖增产2.41%;消费量随新冠疫情的好转和经济持续复苏稳中有增,而2020/2021榨季截至8月底累计销糖量和产销率小幅下降;国内期货价格和现货价格走势相似,呈“V”型态势,食糖进口量预计同比增加,非正规进口大幅下滑。展望2021/2022榨季,国际食糖市场基本平衡,预计印度、泰国、欧盟等主产国增产而巴西减产,国际糖价高位震荡。国内食糖产量预计下降,当年度产不足需态势保持不变。后期还需关注巴西糖醇比价关系、印度出口补贴政策、主产国天气、我国食糖进口政策等方面。

Affected by the reduction of production in Brazil,Thailand and European Union,the international sugar production in the 2020/2021 crushing season fell by 0.97%.The economic recovery in various countries has led to a steady increase in sugar consumption.The global sugar production and demand gap is estimated to be 3 to 4.2 million tons.The domestic sugar production increased by 2.41%due to the increase in planting area,the favorable weather in most regions and stable purchase price,and the consumption increased steadily due to the relieve of COVID-19 and the continued economic recovery,and the cumulative sugar sales and production and sales rate of the 2020/2021 crushing season as of the end of August decreased slightly;Domestic futures prices and spot prices are trending similarly,showing a V-shaped trend.Sugar imports are expected to increase year-on-year,while informal imports have fallen sharply.Looking forward to the 2021/2022 crushing season,the international sugar market is basically balanced.It is expected that major producing countries such as India,Thailand,and the European Union will increase production while Brazil will reduce production,and international sugar prices will fluctuate at a high level.Domestic sugar production is expected to decline,and the current year's insufficient production and demand will remain unchanged.In the later period,we need to pay attention to the relationship between Brazil's sugar alcohol price ratio,India's export subsidy policy,the weather in the main producing country and domestic sugar import policy.