三孩生育政策下中国产业适老化转型发展研究

Research on the development of China's industrial elderly-oriented transformation in the context of three-child policy

为正确认识新三孩人口生育政策背景下中国产业适老化转型发展的特征,有效解决转型发展中可能存在的问题,基于第七次全国人口普查数据显示的中国老龄化趋势,依据国家统计局现行养老产业划分方式,对当前中国产业适老化转型发展问题进行研究。研究认为,中国第二、三产业的适老化发展趋势明显,但在一定程度上面临着养老产业发展不均衡、相关产业缺乏联动性和"数字鸿沟"等现实困境。研究还认为,中国产业适老化发展,需要坚持供给侧结构性改革,提高养老产业全要素生产率,优化养老资源配置,提高养老产业劳动力质量,增设养老服务相关专业和课程,挖掘"人才红利";需要维持或加大公共财政对养老产业的投入,通过法律法规、政策引导和鼓励民间资本投入养老产业,继续完善数字化基础设施建设,整合社会养老服务的数据资源,推动养老产业数字化发展;需要逐步培育和壮大老年用品的市场规模,进一步改善老年群体消费环境,积极引导合理消费,提高老年人对多样化消费的主动需求,培育老龄经济新增长点。

In order to correctly understand the characteristics of the elderly-oriented transformation development of Chinese industries in the context of the new three-child policy,and effectively solve the potential problems that might arise during the process,this paper conducts a study on the current elderly-oriented transformation development of Chinese industries based on the background of aging in China shown by the data of the seventh national census and the current classification method of the elderly care industry proposed by the National Bureau of Statistics.The results show that the elderly-oriented development trend in China's secondary and tertiary industries is obvious,but they are facing real difficulties such as uneven development of the elderly care industry,the lack of linkage between related industries and the"digital divide".To boost the elderly-oriented development in China's industries,it is necessary to implement the structural reform on the supply side firmly,increase the total-factor productivity of the elderly care industry,optimize the allocation of elderly care resources,improve the quality of labor in the elderly care industry,set up disciplines and courses related to elderly care services,make full use of the bonus brought by talents;to maintain or increase investments into the elderly care industry through public finance,guide and encourage non-governmental capital to be invested into the elderly care industry through favorable laws and regulations,continue to improve the infrastructure of digitization,integrate the data resources in the social services for elderly care,boost the digitized development of the industry;to gradually cultivate and increase the market scale of products designed for the elderly,further improve the consumption environment of the elderly group,actively guide their reasonable consumption,increase the elderly's active demand for diversified consumption,and cultivate new growth points for the aging economy.