新冠疫情背景下财政政策的组合策略研究——基于纳入预期和债务反馈机制的DSGE模型

Research on the Combination Strategy of Fiscal Policy in the Context of COVID-19:Based on DSGE Model Including Expectation and Debt Feedback Mechanism

疫情背景下财政当局重启经济既需要考虑政策的有效发挥,还需要对由此产生的政府债务负担加重等问题做综合考虑。本文通过构建包含有预期调控模式和债务反馈机制的DSGE模型,首先讨论预期到的与未预期到的政府消费与政府投资的调控特征,以及三种债务反馈机制对经济和政府债务的中长期影响,然后基于上述研究结果探析应对疫情的财政政策组合搭配。研究发现,面对疫情的负向冲击,搭配未预期到的政府投资增加和预期到的政府消费缩减,能够很好地对冲疫情影响,显著提振经济并实现财政盈余,之后利用减税方式对财政盈余进行反馈将实现中长期经济持续增长与政府债务的控制与化解。

In the context of COVID-19,financial authorities have consider not only the effective play of policies but also the increased burden of government debt.By constructing a DSGE model including expected regulation model and debt feedback mechanism,this paper first comprehensively discusses the regulatory characteristics of expected and unexpected government consumption and government investment,as well as the medium-and long-term effects of the three debt feedback mechanisms on the economy and government debt,and then goes on to explore the combination of fiscal policies based on the above results to respond to the epidemic.It is found that,facing the negative impact of the epidemic,the combination of unexpected increase in government investment and expected reduction in government consumption could well hedge against the impact of the epidemic,significantly boost the economy and achieve fiscal surplus.After that,the use of tax cuts to feedback the fiscal surplus will achieve medium-and long-term economic growth and government debt resolution.