法庭科学人为判断方法的科学有效性与方法确认标准研究

Perception into Forensic Human-based Judgment/Decision about Its Scientific Validity and Validation Standard

近年来,以人的判断为主的鉴定方法的科学有效性备受质疑,这包括方法的重复性、复现性与错误率等没有得到量化的评价,产生的鉴定意见主观性强,准确性难以评判等。但是,随着一些国际组织和国家政府加大研发投入,激发了科学家们的研究热情,使这些问题得到了不同程度的解答。本文通过对相关研究成果的归纳分析,反映出各国在人为判断方法确认的量化评价指标和程序要求方面日趋严谨,将法庭科学与统计学、信息技术等融合,开展跨学科的新方法研发,成为主观鉴定方法转换为客观方法的方向,但是,进行量化评价的实验研究依然处于量变的积累期,尚未成熟。对我国而言,追赶的关键在于,尽快提出自己的人为判断方法确认标准,为评估现有方法和开发新方法奠定基础;组建跨学科的专家团队,加大与量化评价相关的实验研究和计算机方法研发力度。

Forensic human-based judgment/decision exists on some occasions,often causing into being questioned about its scientific validity because of the difficulty to quantitatively evaluate its repeatability,reproducibility,accuracy and error rate due to the subjectivity of the generated identification opinions.However,some international organizations and national governments have been increasing their R&D(research and development)investment on such issues that forensic scientists are aroused of enthusiasm to carry out relevant researches.Accordingly,some relative problems have gotten solutions to varying degrees.Through summarization and analysis into pertinent researches and discoveries,a trend was here elucidated that human-based judgment/decision is becoming more rigorous with the ever-quantitative evaluation indicators and procedural requirements in various countries.The integration of statistics,information technology and the related others into forensic science has resulted in new interdisciplinary approaches being developed,leading a direction of transforming subjective judgment to objective identification.Nevertheless,the experimental exploration of quantitative evaluation is still on the way to accumulate,not mature.For China,the characteristic validation standard should be put forward onto human-based judgment/decision as soon as possible so that the foundation can be laid for evaluating the existing methods and developing new ones.Moreover,an interdisciplinary expert team should be organized,and experimental researches are to strengthen about the concerned quantitative evaluation along with development of computer accesses.