Verhulst模型在滑坡预测预报中的应用研究

Application of Verhulst model in landslides prediction

Verhulst(费尔哈斯)模型自被提出后,被广泛应用到滑坡预测预报中。传统Verhulst模型和Verhulst反函数模型在国内外众多知名的滑坡数据中得以验证,二者相比,传统Verhulst模型预测效果更好。但随着研究的深入,发现两种模型都存在误报的现象,进而被不断改进创新。Verhulst模型在初始值、背景值、判据、运算方法等方面得到优化改进,Verhulst反函数模型仅在初始条件和计算方法上做了简要优化。根据目前优化改进的模型,灰色马尔科夫Verhulst动态模型在Verhulst模型中预测精度最高,适用性最强。而Verhulst反函数模型的改进研究发展相对较少,其适用性和预测预报精度有待考虑。

Verhulst model has been widely used in landslide forecasting since it was proposed.The traditional Verhulst model and Verhulst inverse function model have been verified in many well-known landslide data at home and abroad.Comparatively,the prediction effect of the traditional Verhulst model is better.However,with the deepening of the research,it is found that both of the two traditional models have false positives,which are improved and innovated continuously.The Verhulst model is optimized and improved in original value,background value,criterion,operation method and other aspects,while the Verhulst inverse function model is simply optimized in initial conditions and calculation method.According to the current optimized and improved models,the gray Markov Verhulst dynamic model has the highest prediction accuracy and the strongest applicability in the Verhulst model.However,the improvement of Verhulst inverse function model is relatively undeveloped,and its applicability and prediction accuracy need to be considered.