人口红利、技术进步与产业结构升级--基于行业面板数据的经验分析

Demographic Dividend,Technological Progress and Industrial Structure Upgrading:Experience Analysis Based on Industry Panel Data

基于经济结构转型和人口老龄化迅速发展的现实背景,深入研究人口红利变动、技术进步与产业结构的耦合作用具有重要意义。采用2003~2019年中国19个行业门类面板数据,以2010年为时间节点,分段探究人口红利、技术进步对经济的影响,并进一步运用门槛回归模型,探究人口红利、技术进步的门槛效应。结果表明:(1)2010年以前劳动力要素对经济增长存在显著正向促进作用,2010年以后人口红利总体消失;(2)当纳入产业结构因素,2010年以后人力资本红利仍然存在,但人力资本红利对不同资本装备率行业存在异质性影响;劳动力数量红利只在高资本装备率行业存在且显著性水平不高;(3)全要素生产率对经济的促进作用在不同时段、不同产业结构下都十分显著,且资本装备率越高,全要素生产率对经济的促进作用越强。

Based on the realistic background of economic structure transformation and rapid development of population aging,it is of great significance to study in depth the change of demographic dividend,technological progress and the coupling of industrial structure.Using 2003~2019 China’s 19 panel data of industry categories with 2010 as the time node,the impact of demographic dividend and technological progress on the economy,and further uses the threshold regression model to explore the threshold effect of demographic dividend and technological progress.The results show that:(1)Labor factors have a significant positive effect on economic growth before 2010,and the demographic dividend disappears after 2010.(2)When factors of industrial structure are included,human capital dividends still exist after 2010,but human capital has heterogeneity effects on different capital equipment rate industries.(3)The promotion of total factor productivity to the economy is very significant at different periods and different industrial structures.The higher the capital equipment rate,the stronger the role of total factor productivity in promoting the economy.