基于多元诊断的里运河东堤运行风险评价

Operation Risk AssessmentResearch of Li Canal East Levee Based onMultivariate Diagnosis

为掌握里运河东堤的安全现状,对其进行风险识别,分析可能的典型失效路径,挖掘主要风险因素;建立了里运河东堤的风险评价指标体系,构建了基于决策灰类的评价模型.通过现场检测、高密度电法试验和渗流稳定计算等多元诊断结果作为专家打分的依据,确定指标权重,对整个堤防整体安全性进行评价.结果表明,堤防总体安全级别为基本安全,评价结果为今后的运行管理提供了技术支撑.需要重点关注土堤和涵洞的安全性,进一步对里运河东堤存在的主要风险进行消除,保障其长期安全稳定运行.

In order to grasp the safety status of Li Canal East Levee,the risk identification was carried out,the typical failure paths were analyzed,and the main risk factors were excavated.The risk evaluation index system was established and the evaluation model based on grey decision theory was constructed.The index weight was determined by experts according to the multiple diagnosis results such as field detection,high-density electrical test and seepage stability calculation.The results show that the overall safety level of levee is basic safety,and the evaluation results provide technical support for the future operation and management.It is necessary to focus on the safety of earth embankment and culvert,further eliminate the main risks,and ensure its long-term safe and stable operation.