2000-2018年塔里木盆地北缘绿洲植被覆被变化及对环境要素的响应

Vegetation Cover Change and Its Response to Environmental Factors in Northern Margin Oasis of Tarim Basin from 2000 to 2018

[目的]研究塔里木盆地北缘绿洲区植被覆被变化与环境要素的相互关系,旨在为该区生态治理与恢复提供科学参考。[方法]以2000-2018年MODIS/NDVI数据为基础,结合时序内气象因素与人类活动数据,运用趋势线分析法、相关分析法、ArcGIS空间叠加与通径分析方法,总结塔里木盆地北缘绿洲时空变化特征,并探讨环境要素对绿洲区植被NDVI变化的影响。[结果]①2000-2018年塔里北缘绿洲不同植被类型总体处于波动上升态势,增长速率为0.033/10 a;植被覆盖类型的增长速率由高到低依次为栽培植物、灌丛、阔叶林、草甸、荒漠、草原、湿地、针叶林和高山植被;②在气象因素中,气温与绿洲区植被主要呈负相关,负相关区域面积占绿洲区72.15%。③在人为环境要素中,林业总产值和牧业总产值是影响植被NDVI的主控因子。[结论]在所选环境要素中,气温对NDVI的综合作用最强,林业总产值次之,牧业总产值对NDVI作用较弱。剩余通径系数为0.26,说明还有部分因素对NDVI增加有较明显的影响,今后需要进一步研究。

[Objective]The relationship between vegetation cover change and environmental factors in the oasis in northern margin of Tarim Basin was studied in order to provide scientific reference for ecological management and restoration of the study area.[Methods]Based on MODIS/NDVI data from 2000 to 2018,combined with meteorological factors and human activities data in the same time series,the temporal and spatial variation of oasis in the northern fringe Tarim Basin were analyzed by using trend line analysis,correlation analysis,ArcGIS spatial overlay and through path analysis methods,to explore the influence of environmental factors on the NDVI changes of vegetation in the oasis area.[Results]①From 2000 to 2018,each cover types of oasis in the Northern Tarim Basin was in a fluctuating upward trend,with a propagation rate of 0.033/10 a.The propagation rate of vegetation cover types from high to low were cultivated plants,shrubs,broad-leaved forest,meadow,desert,grassland,wetland,coniferous forest and alpine vegetation.②Temperature change had a negative effect on NDVI of oasis vegetation in the northern margin of Tarim Basin,and the negative correlation area accounted for 72.15%of the oasis area.③Among the factors of human environment,the total output value of forestry and animal husbandry were the main controlling factors of NDVI.[Conclusion]Temperature had the strongest effect on NDVI,followed by gross output value of forestry and animal husbandry,and the effect of total output value of animal husbandry on NDVI is weak.In addition,the residual path coefficient is 0.26,which indicates that there are some other factors that have not been taken into account and need further study.