基于结构方程模型的江西省水资源利用影响因素分析

Influencing Factors of Water Resources Utilization in Jiangxi Province Based on Structural Equation Modeling

[目的]分析江西省水资源利用的影响因素,为实现水资源可持续利用提供理论依据。[方法]从水资源利用的定义出发,以水资源利用、社会发展、经济发展和生态环境为潜在变量,选取相关的指标为观测变量,通过建立结构方程模型(SEM)来定量分析影响江西省水资源利用的因素。[结果]SEM较好地反映了江西省水资源利用的基本情况,其中经济发展、社会发展和生态环境都不同程度地影响水资源利用,表现为:经济发展(0.847)>社会发展(0.500)>生态环境(0.177),而水资源利用主要由水资源开发利用率(0.891)和人均水资源量(0.803)来反映。[结论]由于江西省水资源利用受多方面因素的影响,综合各影响因素之间的影响关系和程度,建议政府应当综合考虑经济发达与欠发达地区的水资源利用情况,建立良好的节水机制,大力宣传节水措施,逐步提高水资源开发利用率,实现水资源可持续利用。

[Objective]The factors affecting water utilization in Jiangxi Province were analysed to provide theoretical evidence for sustainable utilization of water.[Methods]Based on the definition of water utilization,water utilization,social and economic development,and ecological environment were selected as latent variables.In addition,a structural equation model(SEM)was established to quantitatively analyse the factors affecting water utilization in Jiangxi Province.[Results]SEM could reflect the basic situation of water utilization in Jiangxi Province.Furthermore,in the model(SEM),economic development,social development and ecological environment all affected water utilization to varying degrees,and economic development(0.847)>social development(0.500)>ecological environment(0.177).Besides,the utilization of water was mainly reflected by the utilization rate of water development(0.891)and water resources per capita(0.803).[Conclusion]Since the utilization of water resources in Jiangxi Province was affected by many factors,the government should comprehensively consider the different conditions of water utilization in economically developed and under-developed areas.Moreover,the government ought to establish a good water-saving system,promote water-saving measures vigorously,increase the utilization rate of water gradually,and realize the sustainable utilization of water finally.