河北省2000-2017年荒漠化的时空演变及其气候驱动因子

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Desertification and Its Driving Factors of Climate in Hebei Province

[目的]对河北省荒漠化进行遥感监测及驱动因子分析,为该区荒漠化防治提供可靠的理论依据和数据支持。[方法]基于2000-2017年MODIS13A3的NDVI数据和气象数据,以荒漠化指数为评价指标,采用趋势分析、未来趋势变化分析、气候因子驱动分析的方法,分析了河北省荒漠化的时空演变及其驱动因素。[结果]①2000-2017年河北省荒漠化呈减少趋势,减少速率为0.009/18 a,其中极显著减少(p<0.01)比重为11.13%,显著减少(p<0.05)比重为8.86%;②河北省未来荒漠化呈持续性和反持续性的比重分别为41.29%和58.71%,其中弱持续性与弱反持续性所占比例分别为37.43%,51.35%;在现有基础上,未来趋势变化以基本不变为主,持续性特征与反持续性特征所占比例分别为14.89%,19.6%;③研究区荒漠化指数与生长季气温、降水的偏相关系数较小,相关性不显著。[结论]河北省2000-2017年荒漠化整体呈改善趋势,但具有明显的空间异质性,荒漠化区域主要集中在坝上高原地区,Hurst指数表明未来荒漠化在局部地区可能呈逆转态势;就气候因子而言,气温的升高和降雨的减少对研究区内荒漠化起到推进作用。

[Objective]The desertification in Hebei Province was monitored by remote sensing and its driving factors was analyzed,in order to provide reliable theoretical basis and data support for desertification control.[Methods]Based on MODIS13 A3-NDVI and meteorological data from 2000 to 2017,taking the desertification index as the evaluation index,the temporal and spatial evolution of land desertification in Hebei Province and its driving factors were analyzed by trend analysis,future change analysis,and climate factors analysis.[Results]①In 2000-2017,the desertification of study area decreased,with a decreasing rate of 0.009/18 a,of which the proportion of extremely significant decrease(p<0.01)was 11.13%and significant decrease(p<0.05)was 8.86%.②The proportions of persistent and anti-persistent desertification in future in the study area were expected to be 41.29%and 58.71%respectively,of which,the weak persistence and weak anti-persistence was expected to be 37.43%and 51.35%,respectively.On the existing basis,the trend change in the future was basically unchanged,and the proportions of persistent and anti-persistent characteristics were 14.89%and 19.6%respectively.③The partial correlation coefficient of desertification index with precipitation and temperature in growing season was small and insignificant.[Conclusion]The overall desertification situation is improved during 2000-2017,but with obvious spatial heterogeneity.The desertification areas are mainly concentrated in the Bashang Plateau area and the Hurst index indicates that desertification might be reversed in local areas in the future.In terms of climate factors,the increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation can promote desertification in the study area.