基于FLUS模型的子长市土地利用变化模拟研究

Research on Simulation of Land Use Change in Zichang City Based on FLUS Model

以延安市子长市为研究区,采用GlobeLand30的土地利用数据,结合子长市土地利用数据库的数据,利用未来土地利用变化情景模拟模型(GeoSOS-FLUS)从自然、交通区位和社会经济三个方面选取11个驱动因子对子长市2020年的土地利用进行模拟预测,模拟结果与真实结果较为吻合,模拟精度为0.88,Kappa系数为0.85591,在此基础上对子长市2030年土地利用进行模拟预测,为子长市土地利用合理开发和土地资源保护提供借鉴。

Taking Zichang City of Yan'an City as the research area,combined with the land use data of GlobeLand30 and the land use database of Zichang City,this paper uses the future land use change scenario simulation model(GeoSOS-FLUS)to select 11 driving factors from three aspects of nature,traffic location,and social economy to simulate and predict Zichang City's land use in 2020.The results show that the simulation results are in good agreement with the real results.The simulation accuracy is 0.88,and the Kappa coefficient is 0.85591.Based on this,the author simulates and forecasts the Zichang City's land use in 2030,in order to provide a reference for the rational land development and land resource protection of Zichang City.