基于ArcGIS的济南市灾害综合风险评估研究

ArcGIS-based Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban-disasters in Ji'nan

城市灾害综合风险评估是综合防灾减灾规划的基础,对提高城市抵御风险的韧性,保障城市健康、安全发展具有重要意义。基于济南市的灾害分布及特征,从致灾因子危险性、承载体暴露性、承载体易损性、恢复力等方面选取指标,结合层次分析法和专家打分法,构建了济南市灾害灾害综合风险评估指标体系,并利用ArcGIS进行评估。结果表明,济南市灾害综合风险总体上较低,市区东部是高风险的集中区。

Urban disaster comprehensive risk assessment,as the basic of comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation planning,is of great significanceto improve city's risk-resisting resilience and to ensure the healthy and safe development of the city.Based on the distribution and characteristics of disasters in Ji'nan city,we select indexes from such aspects as hazard of factors,exposure and vulnerability of carriers,and resilience.Then,we construced an index system of comprehensive risk assessment of urban-disasters in Ji'nan by the methods of analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring,and evaluated it by ArcGIS-based evaluation.The result shows that the disaster comprehensive risk in Ji'nan city is generally low while the east of Ji'nan city is the high risk area.