长江流域洪水概率预报业务化方法探讨

Discussion on operational method of flood probabilistic forecasting in Changjiang River Basin

当前长江流域洪水预报业务是基于确定性预报思路开展的,给调度决策者提供的风险信息有限,因此亟待开展概率预报应用研究。目前国内的概率预报多处在研究阶段,未形成完善的、实用的业务化方法。在综述长江洪水预报现状和国内外概率预报研究进展的基础上,从基本原则、模型方法库构建、业务流程、成果形式等方面提出了一种洪水概率预报业务化的成套技术体系,可为长江流域洪水概率预报业务的开展提供参考。

The current flood forecast in the Changjiang River Basin is carried out based on the idea of deterministic forecasting,in which the risk information provided to decision makers is limited,so it is urgent to develop probabilistic forecasting technology.At present,most probabilistic forecast in China is still in the research stage,which means that there is no perfect and practical operational method to follow.On the basis of summarizing the current status of flood forecasting in the Changjiang River and the research of probabilistic forecast at home and abroad,we propose a complete set of technical systems for flood probabilistic forecasting in terms of basic principle,the construction of model method library,business process and product form,which can be used for flood probabilistic forecasting in the Changjiang River Basin.