基于熵权模糊综合模型的水污染风险评价——以鄱阳湖流域为例

Risk assessment of water pollution by Fussy Comprehensive Evaluation Model based on entropy weight method:case of Poyang Lake Basin

为科学评价流域水污染风险,结合压力-状态-响应模型(PSR模型)从社会经济、污染源危险性、水资源质量、生态环境脆弱性和水污染防控5个角度建立了包含21个指标的流域水污染风险评价指标体系,并将风险划分为4个等级,采用熵权法确定客观权重,最后利用模糊综合评价模型对2012~2018年鄱阳湖流域水污染风险开展综合评价。结果表明:2012~2016年鄱阳湖流域水污染风险表现为中度风险,2017~2018年转为轻度风险,风险等级整体呈现逐年降低的趋势,与实际情况相符。其中氨氮排放总量、水功能区水质达标率和湖泊Ⅲ类以上水质比例这几个指标对鄱阳湖流域水污染风险的影响较大,因此相关部门需要重点在这些方面做出积极响应。研究成果对于鄱阳湖流域水污染治理和水资源可持续利用有一定借鉴作用。

In order to scientifically evaluate the risk of water pollution in river basins,based on the"Pressure-State-Response"model(PSR model),a risk assessment index system of water pollution in river basins is established with 21 indicators from 5 angels,i.e.,the social economy,the risk of pollution sources,water resources quality,ecological environment vulnerability and water pollution prevention and control.And the risks are divided into four grades,and the entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weight.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to comprehensively evaluate the water pollution risk of Poyang Lake Basin from 2012 to 2018.The results show that the risk of water pollution in Poyang Lake Basin is moderate from 2012 to 2016,and becomes mild from 2017 to 2018.The overall risk level shows a decreasing trend year by year,which is consistent with the actual situation.The ammonia nitrogen emissions,water quality attaiment rate of water function areas and proportion of lakes water quality above Ⅲ class have a great impact on the risk of water pollution in Poyang Lake Basin.Therefore,relevant departments need to focus on these aspects and make positive responses.The research results can be used as a reference for water pollution control and water resources sustainable development in Poyang Lake Basin.