区域创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价与预测——基于2009-2018中国30个省市数据实证研究

Niche-fitness evaluation and prediction of regional innovation ecosystem:An empirical study based on the data of chinese 30 provinces from 2009 to 2018

本研究基于生态位理论构建了区域创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价指标体系和评价模型,并对中国30个省市2009-2018共10年的区域创新生态系统进行评价。研究结果表明:(1)中国整体的创新生态位适宜度较低,但进化空间较大,发展趋势较好;(2)中国的创新引领地区和创新领先地区共涵盖20%的省市,其余为创新落后地区,创新生态系统发展呈现区域不均衡;(3)在区域分布方面,创新生态位适宜度呈现从东部到西部递减趋势。此外,采用GM(1,1)模型预测系统对2020-2024五年的生态位适宜度进行预测,研究结果表明:(1)2020-2024年,中国整体的创新生态位适宜度将有所提升;(2)在权重方面,2020-2024年,生境生态位将继续占据区域创新生态系统最重要的位置。

The evaluation of innovation ecosystem fitness is an important content of innovation ecosystem research.However,existing research still needs to be further explored as follow.Firstly,the ecological characteristics of innovation ecosystem have not been explored in the construction of evaluation index system of niche-fitness of innovation ecosystem.Therefore,this study aims to build an ecological niche-fitness evaluation index system.Secondly,previous research has focused on the perspective of regional niche-fitness distribution and index weight analysis,yet rarely comprehensively evaluated the niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem from the perspective of index analysis.Furthermore,prior research scarcely carried out the prediction research of the niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem.Therefore,based on the niche theory,this study constructs an evaluation index system of niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem from the dimension of species(i.e.,innovation community)and non-species(i.e.,resource niche,habitat niche,and technology niche),and then evaluates and predicts the niche-fitness of China’s regional innovation ecosystem.At first,using the data from 30 provinces of the Chinese mainland(except Tibet)from 2009 to 2018,this study evaluates the niche-fitness and evolutionary momentum of China’s regional innovation ecosystem.The results show that:(1)the overall niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem in China is low,but its evolution space is large,which indicates a good development trend of China’s regional innovation ecosystem.The result reveals that the overall efficiency of China’s current regional innovation ecosystem is low,and the positive driving effect has not been fully released.(2)The results of regional difference analysis show that the innovation top-leading regions and innovation leading regions only account for 20%provinces of China,while the innovation backward regions cover 80%provinces of China.(3)In terms of regional distribution,results show that the niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem shows a decreasing trend from the east region to the west region,and there is a large gap in the innovation niche-fitness in different provinces of China.The results reveal that there exists a serious imbalance in the development of China’s regional innovation ecosystem.Then,on the basis of the results of niche-fitness evaluation of regional innovation ecosystem,using the prediction system based on GM(1,1)model,this study predicts the China’s overall innovation niche-fitness as well as the innovation niche-fitness and weight of each ecological element in the year of 2020-2024.The results are shown as follows:(1)The prediction results of niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem show that the overall innovation niche-fitness of China presents a steady upward trend in 2020-2024.The reason may be that under the"Innovation driven"national development strategy,China began to pay more attention to the construction of regional innovation ecosystem,and have obtained excellent achievement.(2)The results of weight prediction of each ecological elements show that the importance of the resource niche will gradually increase,and the habitat niche will continue to occupy the most important position of regional innovation ecosystem in 2020-2024.The results reveal that the regional innovation ecosystem will require higher resource niche when reaching a high level;and a healthy ecological environment is the key factor to promote the sustainable development of innovation ecosystem.As for the theoretical contributions,this study firstly constructs an evaluation index system of ecological niche-fitness,which promotes the integration of niche-fitness evaluation of innovation ecosystem and ecological theory.Secondly,this study analyzes the change trend of innovation niche-fitness and weight of each ecological element,which provides a new analysis perspective for niche-fitness evaluation of innovation ecosystem.Thirdly,this study constructs a prediction system by introducing GM(1,1)prediction model and combining it with Fourier series correction.On one hand,this study extends the existing research on the application of grey model;on the other hand,it enriches the prediction methods related to innovation ecosystem,and provides a new insight for the analysis of niche-fitness of regional innovation ecosystem.As for the managerial implications,this study provides some recommendations for the government to formulate innovation policies.Firstly,the government should push the innovation process gradually from closed innovation to open innovation.Specifically,the government can cultivate the regional innovation ecosystem by using the"Complementary multi-platform strategy".Secondly,the government should strive to cultivate the innovation subjects and improve the innovation ecological environment,as well as balance the relationship between them.Finally,the government needs to take effective measures to enhance the resource niche of China’s regional innovation ecosystem to promote the healthy development of innovation ecosystem.