可再生能源与传统化石燃料的替代性——基于超越对数生产函数的分析

Substitutability of Renewable Energy and Traditional Fossil Fuel:Based on Analysis of Translog Production Function

基于2001—2018年相关的时间序列数据,建立超越对数生产函数模型研究可再生能源与传统化石燃料的替代性.分析可再生能源与资本、劳动、化石燃料之间的产出弹性、替代弹性及技术进步差异,认为可再生能源能够在不对经济产生不利条件下实现发展,并且在一定程度上能够替代化石燃料.在此基础上将模型拓展,具体分析风能、太阳能、生物质能、水电与煤炭、石油、天然气间的替代弹性,认为煤炭、石油更倾向于用太阳能替代,天然气更倾向于用水电替代;分析了4种可再生能源之间的产出、替代弹性及技术进步差异.

Based on the relevant time series data from 2001 to 2018,a translog production function model was established to study the substitutability of renewable energy and traditional fossil fuels.By analyzing the output elasticity,substitution elasticity and technological progress differences between renewable energy and capital,labor and fossil fuel,it was considered that renewable energy can achieve development without adverse economic conditions,and can replace fossil fuel to a certain extent.The model was innovatively extended to analyze the substitutability of wind energy,solar energy,biomass energy and hydropower for coal,oil and natural gas.It was concluded that coal and oil are more likely to be replaced by solar energy,while natural gas is more likely to be replaced by hydropower.The differences of output,elasticity of substitution and technological progress among the four renewable energy sources were analyzed.