2015年中国PM_(2.5)相关超额死亡数集成评估

Integrated Assessment of PM_(2.5) Related Excess Mortality in China in 2015

环境空气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染是我国目前较为突出的环境问题,也对人群健康造成严重威胁。基于国内外5套不同来源的2015年中国PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度数据和5种暴露-反应关系(exposure-response,E-R)模型,设置了不同PM_(2.5)暴露浓度与E-R模型的25种组合情景,评估了2015年中国归因于环境PM_(2.5)导致的超额死亡数。结果表明,2015年全国(覆盖2826个区县)PM_(2.5)相关超额死亡数为75.0万~256.5万例,其中应用国内E-R模型评估得到的超额死亡数(186.0万~256.5万例)大于国外模型评估得到的超额死亡数(75.0万~133.2万例);空间分布上,京津冀、河南、山东等重污染地区及人口密度较大地区的PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担较重,这些地区需制定更严格的政策来改善空气质量及保护公众健康。指出,我国地面监测站获得的暴露数据通常会高估全国PM 2.5的实际浓度均值,运用多套PM_(2.5)暴露浓度数据和多种E-R模型评估疾病负担,有利于减少评估的不确定性。提出,应加强我国PM_(2.5)与人群健康的队列研究及数据积累,以获取更准确的E-R关系,提升PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担评估结果的准确性。

Ambient PM_(2.5) pollution is currently a serious environmental problem,and it also poses a serious threat to human health.This study sets a scenario matrix including 25 parameter-set scenarios based on PM_(2.5) exposure data from 5 sources and 5 E-R relationship models from both domestic and international studies,to estimate and compare the number of PM_(2.5) related excess mortality in China in 2015 under the different scenarios.The number of PM_(2.5) related excess mortality nationwide(covering 2826 counties)is from 750 thousand to 2.565 million.The estimated excess mortality using the domestic E-R relationship models(1.86 million~2.565 million)is greater than that of the foreign E-R relationship models(750 thousand~1.332 million).Spatially,the heavily polluted areas with high population density like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Henan and Shandong have a higher disease burden from PM_(2.5),which need stricter policies to improve air quality and to protect public health.The exposure data obtained by ground monitoring usually overestimate the actual average concentration of PM_(2.5) across the country.Using multiple sets of PM_(2.5) concentration modelling data and multiple E-R models to assess disease burden can reduce the uncertainty of the assessment.The cohort research and data accumulation on PM_(2.5) and population health should be strengthened to obtain more accurate E-R relationships and improve the accuracy of assessment on PM_(2.5) related disease burden.