摘要
Estimates of unemployment in the UK are based on data collected in the Labour Force Survey(LFS). The data is collected continuously and the survey design is structured in such a way asto provide quarterly estimates. These quarterly estimates are published each month as ‘rollingquarterly’ estimates. Currently the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publish rolling quarterlyestimates, and these have been assessed to be of sufficient quality to be badged as ‘NationalStatistics’. ONS also publish monthly estimates of a selection of labour force variables, but theseare designated ‘Experimental Statistics’ due to concerns over the quality of these data. Due to thesample design of the LFS, monthly estimates of change are volatile as there is no sample overlap.A state space model can be used to develop improved estimates of monthly change, accountingfor aspects of the survey design. An additional source of information related to unemployment isadministrative data on the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. This datais more timely than survey data collected in the LFS and can be used to provide early estimatesof monthly unemployment.
