区域服务贸易协定与服务出口增长--基于均衡分析的视角

Services RTAs and Services Exports Growth——Empirical Study Based on Equilibrium Analysis

本文运用Anderson and van Wincoop(2003)引力模型分析框架和倾向得分双重差分(PSM-DID)估计技术,对区域服务贸易协定的缔约国双边服务出口差异化促进效应问题进行研究。局部均衡估计结果表明,区域服务贸易协定能够有效带动缔约国服务出口的增长,且这种促进效应经过多种稳健性检验后仍然十分显著。进一步分析发现,区域服务贸易协定对缔约国服务出口的促进效应存在明显的时间和国别差异。一般均衡分析表明,缔结协定的数量、伙伴国在缔约国服务出口中的重要性、执行协定的时间以及缔约国别类型对各国整体服务出口增长幅度的差异具有重大影响。最后,我们还反事实模拟分析了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家和重要服务贸易伙伴执行区域服务贸易协定对各国服务出口的影响程度。

In this paper,we examine the bilateral services exports differentiation promotion effects of the parties to the services RTAs by appling the gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop(2003)and the propensity score matching approach combined with difference-in-differences techniques(PSM-DID).The partial equilibrium estimation reveals that services RTAs can effectively promote the growth of services exports of the State party,and that this promotion effect remains significant with a battery of robustness checks.In addition,we find that the promotion effect of services RTAs on services export exhibits significant time and country differences.The general equilibrium analysis reveals that the number of agreements,the importance of partner countries in services export to States parties,the time of implementation of the agreements,and the type of the states parties have significant impacts on the differences of the overall growth of services exports across countries.Finally,we conduct the counter-factually simulated analysis on whether and how well the services export with countries along the“Belt and Road”and the important services trading partners are affected by China’s implementation of services RTAs.