山西省浊漳河北源流域洪水峰量演变规律及联合分布研究

Analysis of evolution law and combined frequency of flood peak and volume in northern source of Zhuozhang River of Shanxi Province

为研究山西省浊漳河北源流域洪水特征,采用浊漳河北源石栈道水文站1957~2016年共60 a逐日流量资料,对洪峰流量、1日洪量进行研究。通过Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,揭示了该水文站洪峰流量和1日洪量演变特征及规律,并通过Copula函数研究了浊漳河北源流域洪水峰量联合分布情况。结果表明:洪峰流量和1日洪量均呈现明显的下降趋势;时间序列上洪峰流量在1971年后有显著的下降趋势,1日洪量在1974年后呈现显著的下降趋势;Copula函数可较好拟合浊漳河北源洪水峰量的相关关系。研究成果可为该流域水利工程规划设计和风险评估提供科学依据。

To study the flood characteristics in the northern source of Zhuozhang River of Shanxi Province,the daily discharge data of 60 years from 1957 to 2016 at the Shizhandao Hydrological Station in the basin were used to analyze the flood peak and maximum 1 day flood volume.Through Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method,the characteristics and evolution laws of flood peak and maximum 1 day flood volume at the Shizhandao Hydrological Station were revealed,and the combined frequency of flood peak volume in the northern source of the Zhuozhang River was studied by Copula function.The results showed that the peak discharge and maximum 1 day flood volume were in an obvious decreasing trend;in the time series,the peak flood discharge has a significant decreasing trend after 1971,and the 1 day flood volume has a significant decreasing trend after 1974;Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function can well fit the correlation between the peak and volume of the flood in the northern source of the Zhuozhang River.The results can provide scientific basis for planning and risk assessment of water conservancy projects in the basin.