京津冀生产性服务业与制造业互动关系研究

Interaction between Producer Services Industry and Manufacturing Industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

推动京津冀协同发展要立足于产业协同,产业联动发展对经济高质量增长具有重要意义。将研究视角聚焦于区域与城市层面,以13个城市2007—2018年数据,基于理论模型与经验分析,构建面板联立方程模型实证分析生产性服务业与制造业之间产业互动关系。结果表明:二者之间存在显著非对称互动关系,且前者对后者的推动作用大于后者对前者的拉动作用。从生产性服务业细分行业来看,双向互动主要体现在批发零售行业,其他行业尚未形成双向互动的良性关系。信息传输业、交通运输业和制造业存在单向促进关系。从各省份来看,北京市和天津市已呈现显著的双向非对称互动关系,但河北省由于生产性服务业发展较晚,尚未与制造业形成双向互动关系。基于此,在“十四五”期间,京津冀尤其河北省应加快推进制造业与生产性服务业互动融合,搭建良性发展平台,实现京津冀地区协同发展。

Promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region should be based on industrial coordination,and industrial linkage development is of great significance to high-quality economic growth.Focusing on the region and city,using the data of 13 cities from 2007 to 2018,this paper constructs the Panel Simultaneous Equation Model to empirically analyze the industrial interaction between producer services and manufacturing industry.Research shows that there is a significant asymmetric interaction between the two parties.The former promotes the latter more than the latter pulls the former.From the view of subdivision of productive services,the two-way interaction mainly takes place only between wholesale and retail industry.While financial sector,scientific research,other industries have not yet formed a sound two-way interaction.Information transmission industry,transportation industry and manufacturing industry have a one-way promotion relationship.From the perspective of each province,Beijing and Tianjin have shown a significant two-way asymmetrical interaction,because of the late development of producer services in Hebei Province,there has not been a two-way interaction relationship with the manufacturing industry.Therefore,during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,especially Hebei province,should accelerate the interaction integration between manufacturing and producer services,build a positive growth platform,and realize the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.