交通基础设施建设、产业结构变化与经济收敛性研究

Transportation Infrastructure,Industrial Structure Change and Economic Convergence

本文通过匹配1999-2016年城市经济和交通基础设施数据,实证检验了城市经济的收敛性,以及交通基础设施建设对城市经济增长收敛性的影响和机制。结果显示,城市劳动生产率存在明显的β绝对收敛、俱乐部收敛和β条件收敛。交通基础设施对城市经济收敛性有显著的正向影响,以工具变量解决内生性问题结论依然成立。机制探究显示,高速铁路和普通铁路通过提高城市化率促进产业结构调整而提高经济收敛速度。最后,反事实分析发现,若中西部城市的高速公路密度达到东部地区的平均水平,会使这些地区城市人均GDP达到北京人均GDP的40%的时间缩短7年;而普通铁路和高速铁路将分别促使中西部城市的经济增长率均值提高0.61%和0.77%。

By matching the data of urban economy and transportation infrastructure from 1999 to2016,this paper empirically tests the economic convergence,as well as the impact and mechanism of transportation infrastructure construction on the economic convergence. The results show that there are obvious β absolute convergence,club convergence and β conditional convergence in urban labor productivity. The transportation infrastructure has a significantly positive impact on the economic convergence,and using instrument variable to solve the endogenous problem,the results remain to be robust. Further mechanism exploration shows that high-speed railways and ordinary railways increase the rate of economic convergence by increasing urbanization rate and promoting industrial restructuring. Finally,counterfactual analysis finds that if the highway density in the central and western regions reaches the average level of that in the eastern region,it will shorten the time for the per capita GDP of these cities to reach 40% of that in Beijing by seven years. In addition,ordinary railways and high-speed railways will promote the average economic growth rate of cities in the central and western regions by 0. 61% and 0. 77%,respectively.