地方政府债务、支出效率与金融稳定的互动关系研究——基于中国30个省份样本的实证分析

The Interaction Among Local Government Debt,Expenditure Efficiency and Financial Stability——Empirical Analysis Based on 30 Provinces in China

基于地方财政以及金融风险视角,构建PVAR模型,以中国30个省份为样本,实证检验地方政府债务、政府支出效率以及金融稳定三者之间的影响机制。研究表明:地方政府债务的扩张会显著降低金融系统的稳定性,而金融稳定性的降低会对政府支出效率产生不利影响,进而加剧政府债务规模的扩张,造成恶性循环。

From on the perspective of local finance and financial risks, this paper constructs a PVAR model to empirically test the influence mechanism among local government debt, government expenditure efficiency and financial stability by taking 30 provinces in China as a sample. Result shows that the expansion of local government debt will significantly reduce the stability of the financial system, and the reduction of financial stability will adversely affect the efficiency of government expenditures, which will further aggravate the expansion of government debt, thus forming a vicious circle.