国际参考电离层2016模型在陆海区域的精度分析

Accuracy analysis of IRI 2016 model in ocean and land areas

为了研究IRI 2016模型在陆地、海洋及全球整体的预报精度和差异性问题,该文利用IGS组织提供的2000—2019年全球电离层TEC数据和12个GNSS跟踪站(陆地区域跟踪站6个,海洋区域跟踪站6个)实测TEC数据,基于陆地和海洋独立研究的方法,借助数理统计、相关系数及时间序列,分析了IRI 2016模型在陆地与海洋区域的精度特征。结果表明:IRI 2016模型精度与研究区域内跟踪站的数量、纬度有密切关系,跟踪站密集区域、低纬度地区模型精度较高;太阳活动强度与IRI 2016模型精度高度相关,2008年和2019年为太阳活动低年,模型的精度较高。IRI 2016模型在全球范围内,相较于海洋区域,陆地区域模型的精度较高;与春秋冬三季相比,夏季TEC预测值与CODE GIM统计差值最小,模型的精度最高。

In order to study the forecast accuracy and differences of the IRI 2016 model on land,ocean and the world as a whole,this article used the global ionospheric TEC data from 2000 to 2019 provided by the IGS organization and 12 GNSS tracking stations(6 tracking stations in the land area,6 marine area tracking stations)Measured TEC data,based on independent land and ocean research methods,analyzed the accuracy characteristics of the IRI 2016 model in land and ocean areas with the help of mathematical statistics,correlation coefficients and time series.The results showed that the accuracy of the IRI 2016 model was closely related to the number of the tracking stations and latitude in the study area.The accuracy of the model was higher in areas with dense tracking stations and low latitudes;The intensity of solar activity was highly correlated with the accuracy of IRI 2016 model.2008 and 2019 were low solar activity years,and the model had high accuracy.IRI 2016 model had a higher accuracy in the global area compared with the ocean area.Compared with spring,autumn and winter,the difference between TEC prediction value and CODE GIM statistical value in summer was the smallest,and the model had the highest accuracy.