个人所得税、高收入不平等与收入流动性

Personal Income Tax,Top Income Inequality and Income Mobility

基于中国家庭金融调查(China Household Finance Survey,CHFS)2011、2013、2015年的非农个体面板数据,首先对个人所得税和社保缴费的累进性及再分配能力进行了考察,然后基于最高收入份额方法及Pareto分布系数方法对高收入不平等进行了分析,最后使用multinomial logit和百分数效应模型研究了收入流动性的影响因素。结果显示:1)尽管个人所得税是累进性的,但其再分配能力非常弱;社保缴费中的公积金呈现出累进特性,养老保险和医疗保险均呈现出累退特性,与个税相同,社保缴费的再分配能力非常微弱。2)非农职业的收入高度集中,各考察期内收入最高10%个体的收入均占总收入的三成左右。3)收入最高的个体一般继续保持在收入分配的最高位置,留在收入分布顶端的个体比例大于留在中等收入阶层的个体比例;在收入分布中向上流动者主要由较低收入个体组成;收入分布中的初始位置、年龄、教育程度、地区变量一般会对收入的向上或向下流动产生显著影响;教育程度为大专以上是所有决定向上流动因素中的最重要因素。

Using non-farmer panel data of 2011,2013,and 2015 of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),this paper first examines the progressivity of indices of income tax and social insurance contribution as well as their redistributive impact,and then mobilizes top income share method and Pareto distribution coefficient to analyze income inequality of top income.Lastly,the multinomial logit and the percentage effect model are used to study the factors associated with income mobility of intra-generation.The results show that although China’s personal income tax is highly progressive,its redistributive capacity is low.As a kind of social contribution,the house funding is progressive,while the pension insurance and medical insurance are both regressive.The redistribution capacity of these social contributions is hence very weak.Nonfarmer income is highly concentrated.The top10%of the income distribution accounts for 30 percent of total income on average throughout the period.The highest income individuals generally continue to maintain the highest position in income distribution,and the proportion of individuals remaining at the top of the income distribution is greater than that in the middle-income group.In the income distribution,the upward mobility is mainly caused by lower-income individuals.The initial position in the income distribution,age,education level,and regional variables generally has a significant impact on the upward or downward mobility.The tertiary educational level is the most important determinant that influences upward movements.