船间危险驶过持续时间模型及应用分析

Ship near-miss duration model and application analysis

[目的]危险驶过是船舶会遇时的一种特殊情况,从时间维度对其建模以评价船舶潜在碰撞风险。[方法]首先,建立船间危险驶过时间模型,并利用藤井船舶领域模型检测危险驶过场景,定义危险驶过持续时间和平均持续时间。然后,基于船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据的时间同步处理,建立该持续时间的计算模型,再利用危险驶过持续时间来分析船舶交通安全风险的时间维度特征。最后,以渤海海域内的船舶航行安全为研究对象对所提模型进行验证。[结果]结果表明,船间危险驶过持续时间与船舶类型、尺度相关。按照船舶类型分析,油船发生船间危险驶过的平均持续时间最长(252.63 s),客船的最短(180 s);按船舶尺度分析,大型船舶的最长(272.65 s),中型船舶的最短(180 s)。[结论]所提模型可以准确计算船间危险驶过持续时间,结果可以为从时间维度研究海上交通风险提供新思路。

[Objectives]The near-miss of two ships is a special situation that ships will encounter,and it can be modeled in terms of the time-dimension perspective for evaluating potential maritime traffic risks.[Methods]In this paper,a temporal near-miss model is first established using the Fujii ship domain to de-tect near-miss situations,and the near-miss duration and average duration are then defined.An algorithm for calculating near-miss duration is proposed on the basis of the time synchronization processing of automatic identification system(AIS)data.Furthermore,the near-miss duration is used to analyze the time-dimension characteristics of maritime traffic risks.The Bohai Sea area is used as the research example to verify the mod-el.[Results]The correlations between the average near-miss duration and ship type and length are determ-ined.According to ship type analysis,the longest average near-miss duration is 252.63 s for an oil tanker and at least 180 s for a passenger ship.According to ship size analysis,the longest average near-miss duration is 272.65 s for a large ship and at least 180 s for a mid-size ship.[Conclusions]The proposed model can be used to accurately calculate near-miss duration,providing a new approach to studying maritime traffic risks from the time-dimension perspective.