基于生命周期的区域围填海存量分析方法研究

Study on analysis method of regional marine reclamation stock based on life cycle

为了更加客观地认识区域围填海存量特征、提高围填海存量处置的科学性,作者基于生命周期理论从时间和空间两个维度设计围填海存量分析方法,用围填海存量的年龄反映其持续历史、用围填海存量的时空规模反映围填海存量处置压力,选择曹妃甸经济区和天津南港工业区开展实证研究,结果表明:曹妃甸经济区围填海存量的空间规模虽大于天津南港工业区,但后者的时空规模即围填海存量的处置压力要大于前者。这一结果与人们的普遍认识相悖,说明在制定围填海存量处置策略时不仅要从空间上关注围填海存量空间规模,还要从时间维度关注其持续历史。

To more objectively understand regional marine reclamation stocks and deal with them more scientifi-cally,this paper introduces an analysis method to evaluate the characteristics of regional marine reclamation stocks while considering temporal and spatial dimensions based on the life-cycle theory.The ages and temporal-spatial scales of marine reclamation stocks were used to predict their historic periods and disposal pressures,respectively.Empirical research was conducted on the Caofeidian Economic Zone and Tianjin Nangang Industrial Zone.It was shown that the Tianjin Nangang Industrial Zone with less spatial scale had larger total temporal-spatial scale of ma-rine reclamation stock than the Caofeidian Economic Zone,which was contrary to the common public understand-ing.This finding suggests that strategies to deal with marine reclamation stocks should focus not only on their spa-tial scale but also on their history periods at each engineering status.