我国省域粮食产需失配的时空演变及要素分析

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Factor Analysis of the Mismatch of Grain Production and Demand in China

从粮食产需空间失配的角度分析我国省域粮食产需匹配关系及粮食安全。通过构建粮食产需空间失配模型,选择我国27个省级区域分析其粮食产需空间失配的时空演变特征,比较2007—2013年、2013—2019年两个时期粮食生产和粮食需求变化对产需失配的影响。结果表明:1)大部分省域的粮食产需失配状况愈发严重,需要采取更多的粮食储备、粮食流通等措施和投入以确保由于粮食产需空间失配导致的粮食安全问题;2)不同省域粮食产需空间失配的时空特征与变化特征不同,应分类型采取不同的措施,将27个省域分为4种类型,并针对4种类型提出不同的政策建议;3)我国粮食产需空间失配受粮食产业政策和投入影响明显,在加大粮食生产和投入的同时应加强粮食储备、粮食通道等粮食产需再匹配环节的建设。

From the perspective of the spatial mismatch of grain production and demand,the paper analyze the matching relationship between grain production and demand in China's provinces and food security.By constructing a spatial mismatch model of grain production and demand,analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the spatial mismatch of grain production and demand in 27 provincial regions in China,compared the effects of changes in grain production and grain demand on the mismatch of production and demand in the two periods of 2007—2013 and 2013—2019.The results show that:1)The mismatch of grain production and demand in most provinces in China is becoming more and more serious,and more measures and inputs such as grain reserves and grain circulation are needed to ensure food security caused by the spatial mismatch of grain production and demand.2)The spatiotemporal characteristics and change characteristics of the spatial mismatch of grain production and demand in different provinces in China,divide 27 provinces in China into four types,and different policy recommendations are put forward for the four types of regions.3)The spatial mismatch of grain production and demand in China is obviously affected by grain industry policies and inputs.While increasing grain production and investment,the construction of grain reserves,grain channels and other grain production and demand rematch links should be strengthened.