县域城镇化进程中的金融财政协同门槛效应研究

A Study on the Financial-Fiscal Synergy Threshold Effect in the County Urbanization Process

本文通过拓展的经济增长模型,构建包括金融、财政子行业的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,以1999—2018年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)1993个县域动态面板数据作为样本,采用PSTR回归模型方法,实证研究县域金融、财政和城镇化进程的非线性关系,检验县域金融中介和财政支出的协同效应对县域城镇化进程的作用。在此基础上,对我国推进县域城镇化进程中的政策效果进行评估。研究发现,我国县域金融中介和财政支出进入非协同区制,规模和结构失衡状况没有改观,其中结构协同失衡更为严重,仍具备较大的县域城镇化进程空间。在此基础上,本文以促进县域城镇化进程为契机,提出应充分发挥各自优势,构建金融、财政资源合理配置的良性协同机制,更好地推进县域城镇化进程。

This paper constructs a Cobb-Douglas production function including financial and fiscal subsectors through an extended economic growth model,and uses dynamic panel data of 1993 counties in 31 provinces(autono-mous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)in China from 1999 to 2018 as samples,and adopts the PSTR regression model method to empirically study the county financial,non-linear relationship between fi-nance and urbanization process,and test the role of synergistic effect of county financial intermediation and fiscal ex-penditure on county urbanization process.On this basis,the policy effects in the process of promoting county urbaniza-tion in China are evaluated.It is found that China's county financial intermediation and fiscal expenditure enter the non synergistic zone system,and the imbalance between scale and structure is not improved,among which the structural synergistic imbalance is more serious,and there is still more room for the county urbanization process.On this basis,this paper takes the promotion of county urbanization as an opportunity to propose that we should give full play to our respective advantages and build a benign synergistic mechanism for the rational allocation of financial and fiscal resourc-es to better promote the county urbanization process.