人工智能发展对我国绿色全要素生产率的影响——基于动态系统GMM估计和门槛模型的实证研究

The Influence of AI Development on Green Total Factor Productivity in China:An Empirical Study Based on GMM and Threshold Model of Dynamic System

基于我国29个省市2009—2018年的面板数据,运用动态面板GMM估计和门槛模型,实证分析了人工智能的发展对绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的影响。结果表明,人工智能对GTFP具有显著的正面效应,且人工智能发展主要提升了绿色技术效率;人工智能对GTFP的影响存在基于研发投入的双重门槛效应;进一步采用面板分位数模型得出,人工智能对处于高分位点处GTFP的促进作用更大。据此,提出加快相关基础设施建设,加大人工智能领域研发投入、积极引导人工智能与优势产业的融合发展等对策,以此促进GTFP的增长。

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2018,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of the development of artificial intelligence on green total factor productivity(GTFP),by using dynamic panel GMM and threshold model.The results show that artificial intelligence has a significant positive effect on GTFP,and the development of artificial intelligence mainly improves the efficiency of green technology;the influence of artificial intelligence on GTFP has a double threshold effect based on R&D investment;artificial intelligence has a greater role in promoting GTFP at high quintiles through further adopting the panel quantile model.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the construction of related infrastructure,to increase investment in research and development in the field of artificial intelligence,and to actively guide the integrated development of artificial intelligence and competitive industries,thereby promoting the growth of GTFP.