基于耦合角度的河北省棉花“五化”与区域经济发展研究

"Five Modernizations"of Cotton Production and Regional Economic Development in Hebei Province from the Perspective of Coupling

河北省是黄河流域重要棉花生产地之一,承担着棉花生产安全及分散棉花产业风险的重任,也是区域经济的重要组成部分。以棉花生产的规模化、机械化、信息化、智能化和社会服务化作为一个评价整体,对棉花“五化”与区域经济的耦合程度进行定量分析。河北省棉花“五化”与区域经济各系统发展情况的综合评价指数存在明显的“剪刀差”现象,并有阶段性变化;河北省棉花“五化”与区域经济间耦合程度呈现上下波动特征,但大体保持良好耦合关系;耦合协调度走势与耦合度大体略同,但其协调等级变化更为明显;2009—2018年二者的耦合关系由濒临失调到初级协调再到中级协调状态,这表明二者之间相互促进的协调效应越来越明显。因此,依据二者耦合关系提出针对性建议,促进棉花生产“五化”与区域经济良性耦合发展。

Hebei Province,as one of the important cotton production areas in the Yellow River Basin,undertakes the responsibility of cotton production safety and diversification of cotton industry,which is an important part of regional economy.This paper makes an empirical analysis on the coupling of cotton five modernization and regional economy,by taking the scale,mechanization,informatization,intelligence and social service of cotton production as an evaluation whole.This paper finds that:there is a significant"price scissors"in the comprehensive evaluation index of the development of regional economic systems in Hebei Province;the coupling between the"five modernizations"of cotton and regional economy in Hebei Province fluctuate up and down,but generally maintain a positive coupling relationship;the trend of coupling coordination is roughly the same as that of coupling,with more obvious change of coordination:from 2009 to 2018,the coupling between the two has changed from disharmony to primary coordination and then to intermediate coordination,which shows that the coordination effect of mutual promotion between the two is more and more obvious.Therefore,according to the coupling between the two factors,some suggestions are put forward to promote the sound coupling development of"five modernizations"cotton production and regional economy.