城市地铁系统发展规模与建设时机研究

Research on the Development Scale and Construction Opportunity of Urban Metro System

利用全世界各地地铁系统发展相对完善的城市特征数据进行关联分析,论证城市地铁系统合理建设规模;利用国内已开通运营地铁城市特征数据构建规格化分析指标,判断地铁系统适宜的建设时机。研究结果表明:城市地铁系统发展规模与城市人口规模呈现正相关关系,但人均拥有地铁里程与线网客流强度呈现负相关关系;地铁系统建设时机则与市区常住人口数、人均GDP、一般公共预算收入、建成区人口密度等高度相关。

This paper uses urban characteristic data of the well-known metro cities all over the world to conduct correlation analysis,demonstrates the reasonable scale of metro construction,and constructs the standardized analysis index by using urban characteristic data of the metro cities that have been opened in China to judge the appropriate time for metro construction.The results show that the scale of urban subway system is positively correlated with the population size,but the per capita metro mileage is negatively correlated with the network passenger flow intensity;the construction timing of metro system is highly correlated with the number of permanent residents,per capita GDP,general public budget income and population density in the built-up area.