计及光伏出力不确定性的氢能综合能源系统经济运行策略

Economic operation strategy of hydrogen integrated energy system considering uncertainty of photovoltaic output power

针对分布式光伏出力的不确定性特征对系统运行经济性的影响,提出了一种计及光伏出力不确定性的氢能综合能源系统经济运行策略。首先,搭建氢燃料电池的热电输出控制模型和氢能综合能源系统的热力系统模型;然后,在光伏出力预测数据的基础上,通过分析光照强度变化的不确定性以修正光伏出力预测曲线;最后,以最小化系统日运行成本为目标函数,建立包含光伏、氢燃料电池、热电联产机组的氢能综合能源系统的运行优化模型。算例分析结果表明,考虑光伏出力不确定性对氢燃料电池输出的影响,可使系统设备的出力更加合理,对降低运行成本、提高氢能综合能源系统的运行可靠性具有积极作用。

Aiming at the influence of the uncertainty characteristics of distributed PV(PhotoVoltaic)output power on the economic operation of the system,an economic operation strategy of hydrogen integrated energy system considering uncertainty of PV output power is proposed.Firstly,the thermoelectric output control model of hydrogen fuel cell and the thermal system model of hydrogen integrated energy system are built.Then,based on the forecasting data of PV output power,the forecasting curve of PV output power is corrected by analyzing the uncertainty of light intensity variation.Finally,the operation optimization model of hydrogen integrated energy system including PVs,hydrogen fuel cells,and combined heating and power units is established with the objective function of minimizing the daily operation cost of system.The example analysis results show that considering the influence of PV output power uncertainty on hydrogen fuel cell output,the output power of system equipment can be more reasonable,which plays a positive role in reducing operation cost and improving operation reliability of hydrogen integrated energy system.