考虑荷储动态特性时序降维的配电网剩余供电能力评估

Residue supply capability assessment of distribution network with time series dimension reduction considering dynamic characteristic of load and energy storage

随着储能和分布式能源渗透率的不断提高,剩余供电能力评估亟需考虑储能调节和分布式能源的动态特性,为此,提出一种考虑荷储动态特性时序降维分析的剩余供电能力评估方法。采用模糊C均值聚类技术建立负荷动态时序聚类模型,并对储能的动态特性进行建模分析;通过定义工作点时间断面的降维提取方法,将含荷储时序特性的二维动态配电网转换为以聚类中心负荷峰值时刻的负荷集合表示负荷状态的一维静态剩余供电能力评估问题;基于现有的剩余供电能力评估模型建立含多工作点时间断面剩余供电能力的安全边界,进而准确计算配电网的剩余供电能力,同时考虑新增用户负荷差异化影响,并以剩余供电能力系数进行修正。算例分析验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。

Along with continuous increasing penetration rate of energy storage and distributed energy,it is urgent to consider the dynamic characteristics of energy storage regulation and distributed energy in residue supply capability assessment,for which,a residue supply capability assessment method with time series dimension reduction analysis considering dynamic characteristic of load and energy storage is proposed.The fuzzy C-means clustering technology is adopted to build a dynamic time series clustering model of load,and the dynamic characteristics of energy storage is modeled and analyzed.By defining the dimension reduction extraction method of working point time section,the two-dimensional dynamic distribution network with time series characteristic of load and energy storage is transformed into a one-dimensional static residue supply capability assessment problem with load status expressed by load set at peak time of clustering center load.A safety boundary with residue supply capability of multi-working point time section is built based on current model of residue supply capability assessment,further the residue supply capability of distribution network is accurately calculated,meanwhile the impact of load difference of new-added users is considered and corrected by residue supply capability coefficient.Case analysis verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.