基于熵权TOPSIS模型的海洋经济系统脆弱性评价与障碍度分析

Vulnerability Assessment and Obstacle Degree Analysis of Marine Economic System Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS Model

深入分析海洋经济系统脆弱性与障碍因子对促进海洋经济可持续发展具有重要意义。论文从胁迫性、敏感性、弹性、应对能力4个方面构建海洋经济系统脆弱性指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS与障碍度模型分析了2007—2016年江苏省海洋经济系统的脆弱性特征与障碍因子。研究发现:首先,2008和2012年海洋经济系统脆弱性较低且较上年度优化转变最明显。其次,敏感性与应对能力总体呈现稳步提升特征。胁迫性与弹性分别在2008年和2012年对脆弱性影响最大,其余年份敏感性对脆弱性影响最大。最后,各年度准则层障碍度由高到低均为胁迫性、弹性、应对能力、敏感性,各年度指标层前4个障碍因子累计障碍度均大于60%,其中,沿海地区风暴潮造成经济损失与海洋自然保护区面积均是主要障碍因素。

It is of great significance to deeply analyze the vulnerability and obstacle factors of marine economic system to promote the sustainable development of marine economy.This paper constructs vulnerability index system of marine economic system from four aspects:coercion,sensitivity,flexibility and coping ability.The vulnerability characteristics and obstacle factors of Marine economic system in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2016 were analyzed by using entropy weight TOPSIS and obstacle degree model.The results show that:The vulnerability of marine economic system in 2008 and 2012 is relatively low,and the optimization transformation is the most obvious.The sensitivity and coping ability showed the characteristics of steady improvement.Stress and elasticity had the greatest impact on vulnerability in 2008 and 2012,respectively,and sensitivity had the greatest impact on vulnerability in the rest years.The obstacle degree of each year criterion layer was stress,elasticity,coping ability and sensitivity from high to low.The cumulative obstacle degree of the first four obstacle factors in each year’s index layer is more than 60%,and the economic loss caused by storm surge in coastal areas and the area of marine nature reserves are the main obstacle factors.