摘要
根据河南省110个气象站1970−2019年逐日最高气温观测资料和19个农业气象观测站夏玉米生育期数据,以32℃和35℃作为轻度和重度夏玉米花期高温热害发生阈值,选取花期日最高气温≥32℃和≥35℃发生频率和日最高气温≥32℃和≥35℃的积热量4个关键致灾气象因子,构建高温热害综合指数,开展河南省夏玉米花期高温热害风险区划,为夏玉米生产趋利避害和防灾减灾提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)1970−2019年河南省夏玉米花期高温日数呈先减小后增加的趋势,21世纪10年代(2010s)后高温日数和频率明显增加,与高温发生频次最低的1980s(20世纪80年代)相比,高温日数增加1.4d(≥32℃)和1.5d(≥35℃),高温频率增加20.6个百分点(≥32℃)和20.5个百分点(≥35℃)。河南省夏玉米花期高温日数50a平均值在1.8~4.5d(≥32℃)和0.4~1.9d(≥35℃),高温发生频率在24.3%~64.3%(≥32℃)和2.5%~31.1%(≥35℃),豫东南为高温热害发生的高频区。(2)近50a轻度和重度高温积热均呈先减弱再增强的趋势,21世纪10年代(2010s)高温积热较1980s(20世纪80年代)增加52.8℃·d(≥32℃)和52.5℃·d(≥35℃)。空间分布上基本呈现出南高北低、东部平原高于西部山区的态势。(3)结合高温强度和发生频率的致灾高风险区主要集中在南阳南部、漯河、许昌东部、周口、驻马店,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的28.5%;研究区域大部地区为中风险区,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的56.2%;而三门峡、洛阳西部、济源西部、安阳等地夏玉米花期高温热害风险相对较低,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的15.3%。
In recent years,high temperature disaster occurred frequently in China,which had a serious impact on maize and became one of the main meteorological disasters endangering maize production.Based on daily maximum temperature observation data of 110 meteorological stations in the region from 1970 to 2019 and observational data of the summer maize booting period from 19 agro-meteorological observational stations in Henan province,the occurrence days,frequency and disaster risk of high temperature disaster were analyzed by using statistical and spatial analysis methods.Four key meteorological factors were selected to build integrated climatic indexes.The indices included the occurrence probability of temperature higher than 32℃and 35℃,and the accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ and 35℃. The results showed that: (1) the days and occurrence probability of temperature higher than 32℃ and 35℃ decreased from 1970s to 1980s, and increased since 1990s. The days of high temperature in 2010s during the summer maize flowering period was increased by 1.4d (≥32℃) and 1.5d (≥35℃), and the occurrence probability increased by 20.6 percent point (≥32℃) and 20.5 percent point (≥35℃). The days of high temperature during the summer maize flowering period was from 1.8 to 4.5d (≥32℃) and from 0.4 to 1.9d (≥35℃), and occurrence probability of high temperature was from 24.3% to 64.3% (≥32℃) and from 2.5% to 31.1% (≥35℃). The spatial distribution has significant difference, and the frequency in the southeastern was higher than other areas. (2) The accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃and 35℃ showed an increasing trend after decreased in the early stage. Compared with the 1980s, the accumulation of temperature in 2010s increased by 52.8℃·d (≥32℃) and 52.5(≥35℃). The accumulation of temperature higher than 32℃ was from 56.7℃·d to 156.4℃·d during the summer maize flowering period and that of higher than 35℃ was from 15.9 to 79.1℃·d, and accumulation of temperature in south was higher than that in the north, and it in the east was higher than that in the west. (3) Integrated risk indexes showed that high risk was mainly located in southeastern areas, which adjacent to the south part of Nanyang, Luohe, the east part of Xuchang, and Zhoukou, accounting for approximately 28.5% of the main summer maize planting area. The risk was moderate in the central region, accounting for approximately 56.2% of the main summer maize planting area. While the risk of heat stress was relatively low in Sanmenxia, Anyang and in the western part of Luoyang and Jiyuan, accounting for approximately 15.3% of the main summer maize planting area.
作者
徐延红
刘天学
方文松
李树岩
XU Yan-hong;LIU Tian-xue;FANG Wen-song;LI Shu-yan(China Meteorological Administration·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Luoyang Meteorological Bureau,Luoyang 471000;Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003)
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第10期879-888,共10页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFD0300704,2017YFD0300304)。
关键词
玉米花期
高温热害
风险区划
河南省
Summer maize
High temperature disaster
Risk zoning
Henan province