自然灾害经济增长效应的区域差异研究--基于1998—2018年的省域面板数据分析

Study on Regional Differences in the Relation between Natural Disasters and Economic Growth--Analysis of Provincial Panel Data Between 1998—2018

运用1998—2018年的分省面板数据,以地区为考察对象,对全国和区域层面的自然灾害与经济增长关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,现阶段自然灾害在我国总体上仍是以“消极”因素的姿态存在的,即会对地区的经济增长带来负面的影响。在全国层面上,这种影响既会通过自然灾害广度的形式,如频繁发生的各类自然灾害事件,也会通过强度的形式,如单次灾害事件造成更多的损失与影响,得以具体的体现;在地区层面上,不同区域之间有着显著的差异性,东部和中部的产出变量与自然灾害广度和强度变量之间,呈现出显著的正相关关系,而西部和东北地区则表现为显著的负相关关系。

In this paper,using the provincial panel data of 1998—2018,the empirical study on the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth at the national and regional levels is carried out.The results show that natural disasters still exist in the attitude of“negative”factors,which will have negative impact on the economic growth of the region.At the national level,the influence of both natural disasters through the breadth of the form,such as the frequent occurrence of various natural disasters,or through the strength of the form,such as losses and the impact of more single disaster events,can be reflected;at the regional level,there are significant differences between different regions.Between the output variables and natural disasters in the breadth and strength variables of eastern and central,showing a significant positive correlation,while the western and northeastern regions showed a significant negative correlation.