借助汶川地震损失数据探讨自然灾害等级划分标准

Discussion on the Grade Scales of Natural Disasters by the Losses in Wenchuan Earthquake

科学划分自然灾害等级是有效配置救灾和重建资源的重要依据。通过搜集、整理汶川地震造成的直接经济损失、人员伤亡数据,严重受灾地区经济发展和人口基础数据,进一步探讨以直接经济损失与上一年地区生产总值之比(损失比)和死亡、失踪和重伤人数与总人口数之比(伤亡比)为经济损失和人员伤亡相对指标的自然灾害等级划分标准。提出经济增长速度体现甚至影响承灾能力的思路,将损失比与灾害发生前3 a地区生产总值平均增速之比作为经济损失的相对指标,与人员伤亡相对指标一起,对国家级、省市级和市县级给出不同的自然灾害等级划分标准。与此协调,引入国际上以“生命年”为灾害损失指标的做法,提出基于生命年的灾害等级划分标准。

Scientific grade scale of natural disasters contributes to the effective distribution of relief and reconstruction supplies.Based on the direct economic loss and casualties in Wenchuan Earthquake,gross regional product(GRP)and population in the affected areas,the ratio of the direct economic loss to GRP in last year,named as loss ratio,is a relative index of economic loss,and the ratio of the population of death,missing and serious injuries to the total population,named as casualty ratio,was a relative index of casualties.The grade scale,with these two indices,was discussed further.Economic growth rate is considered as an alternative factor,which could represent,even influence on the capacity of disaster-bearing units.The ratio of the loss ratio to the annual economic growth rate in the last three years is suggested to replace the loss ratio as the index of economic loss,and different grade scales are given on the levels of nation,province and county.In coordination with this,“life year”is introduced as an index of disaster losses,a“life year”-based grade scale of natural disaster is provided.