广西低温雨雪冰冻灾害危险性评估和区划

Assessment and Zoning of Low-Temperature,Rain/Snow and Freezing Disasters in Guangxi

利用广西壮族自治区91个台站1960—2020年上一年度12月至当年3月逐日气象数据,基于气象灾害危险性主要由气象危险因子活动强度和活动频次评估思路构建综合危险性指标,对广西低温雨雪冰冻灾害危险性进行评估和区划。结果表明:①广西低温雨雪冰冻的影响主要在桂东北和桂东区域,次低危险性区及低危险性区位于桂西、西南和桂南部沿海。灾害危险性主要来自低温。②危险区等级由东北向西南呈递减趋势,这种递减趋势低纬度要比高纬度明显,同时,随着纬度的增高,危险性区等级增大。在同一纬度上,又随着经度的偏东危险性区等级增大。③高危险区,占总面积的4.1%;次高危险性区占总面积的15.6%;中危险性占总面积的23.0%;次低危险性区及低危险性区分别占总面积的26.7%、30.6%。

Based on the daily meteorological data of 91 stations in Guangxi from 1960 to July 2020,a comprehensive risk index is constructed to assess and regionalize the risk of low temperature rain and snow freezing disasters in Guangxi.The results show that:(1)The influence of low temperature rain and snow freezing in Guangxi is mainly in the northeast and east of Guangxi,and the sub low risk area and low risk area are located mainly in the southwest and south coast of Western Guangxi.The disaster risk mainly comes from low temperature.(2)The grade of danger area is decreasing from northeast to southwest,which is more obvious in low latitude than in high latitude.At the same time,with the increase of latitude,the grade of danger area increases.At the same latitude,with the longitude of the East,the risk zone level increases.(3)High risk area accounted for 4.1%of the total area;sub high risk area accounted for 15.6%of the total area;medium risk area accounted for 23.0%of the total area;sub low risk area and low risk area accounted for 26.7%and 30.6%of the total area respectively.