中国对上合组织成员国的投资与外交相似度——基于联合国投票的量化分析

China’s Investment in the SCO Member States and Bilateral Diplomacy:Evidence from Voting in the UN General Assembly

海外投资逐渐成为大国提升区域影响力、树立负责任形象的政策工具。在中国成为全球主要的海外投资国之际,本文利用中国海外投资追踪数据库和联合国大会投票数据,实证研究了中国对上合组织成员国的海外投资对双边外交相似度的影响。结果显示,伴随中国对各成员国投资额的增长,与相关国家的外交相似度显著提升,中国海外投资有助于成员国之间建立更和谐的政治关系。随后,基于投资主体和行业的异质性检验发现,国企和私企投资产生了不同的影响,相比之下,国企投资对于双边外交相似度产生了更强的推动力;中国对各成员国所进行的经济溢出效应更大的基础设施投资,更有助于降低双边外交政策的分歧,而资源型投资的影响并不显著。最后,扩展性分析进一步显示,中国国际政治影响力对海外投资与双边外交相似度之间的相关性发挥了调节作用。中国国际政治地位的提升,有助于推动中国与上合组织成员国之间更加良性的政经互动。

Overseas investment has gradually become a policy tool for major countries to enhance their regional influences and establish their images as responsible stakeholders.At a time when China is becoming a major overseas investor in the world,based on China’s overseas investment tracking database and the voting data of the United Nations General Assembly,this article explores empirically the impact of China’s overseas investment in the SCO members on their bilateral diplomatic similarities.The empirical results show that with the growth of China’s investment in member countries,diplomatic similarities between countries have been significantly improved.China’s overseas investment helps to establish a more harmonious political relationship between member countries.Then,based on the heterogeneity test of investment subjects and industries,it is observed that the investment of state-owned enterprises and private ones have different effects.In contrast,the investment of state-owned enterprises has a stronger driving force for diplomatic similarities between the two countries;at the same time,China’s investment in the SCO members’infrastructure,which has greater economic spillover effects,helps to decrease divergences between two countries’diplomacy while impacts of resource-based investment aren’t so big.Finally,fUrther analysis indicates that the improvement of China’s international influences has a moderating effect on the correlation between its overseas investment and bilateral diplomatic similarities.The enhancement of China’s international political status helps to promote more benign political and economic interaction between China and the SCO member states.