我国法定传染病死亡人数变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Trend of Deaths of Statutory Infectious Diseases in China

目的分析我国传染病死亡风险的变化趋势,探究我国传染病死亡风险变化的可能原因,为提高我国对传染病防控的重视程度及制定防控策略提供参考。方法以2013-03/2019-05逐月报告的全国法定传染病死亡人数为分析对象,应用SPSS 22.0软件对获得数据进行季节分解模型构建,分解出时间序列中的趋势和循环成分(STC),并应用Eviews 8软件对时间序列的趋势和循环成分进行分段回归分析。结果从2013-03/2019-05全国共报告法定传染病死亡人数为117122人,月平均死亡人数为1562人;艾滋病和肺结核的累计死亡人数分别占法定传染病总死亡人数的78.83%和10.52%;“一带一路”倡议实施后,我国传染病总死亡人数、艾滋病死亡人数、肺结核的死亡人数的调整斜率分别为18.029、14.239和1.897,相对于疾病自身均呈明显上升趋势。结论我国法定传染病的死亡风险状况不容乐观,整体传染病死亡风险较高且近些年扩大开放后呈现快速增加的趋势,我国应借助“一带一路”平台,加强卫生合作顶层设计,推动全球卫生治理,降低因扩大开放带来的传染病风险。重点针对艾滋病、肺结核以及高死亡风险类新发传染病进行治理,有效降低我国整体传染病威胁。

Objective To analyze the changing trend of the death risk of infectious diseases and its underlying causes of the change in China so as to provide reference for improving the attention paid to the prevention and control of infectious diseases and formulating prevention and control strategies in China.Methods The number of deaths of national statutory infectious diseases reported monthly from March 2013 to May 2019 was considered as the analysis object.SPSS 22.0 software was used to perform the seasonal decomposition model,and the trend and cyclic components(STC)in the time series were decomposed.Eviews 8 software was used to conduct segmental regression analysis of the trend and cyclic components in the time series.Results From March 2013 to May 2019,117122 deaths of statutory infectious diseases were reported in China,with an average monthly death number of 1562.Cumulative deaths from AIDS and tuberculosis accounted for 78.83%and 10.52%of the total deaths of statutory infectious diseases,respectively.After the implementation of the“The Belt and Road”strategy,the adjusted slopes of the total number of deaths of infectious diseases,AIDS,and tuberculosis were 18.029,14.239,and 1.897 in China,respectively,showing a significant upward trend relative to the disease itself.Conclusion The risk of death caused by statutory infectious diseases is not optimistic in China.The overall risk of deaths caused by infectious diseases is relatively high and has been increasing rapidly in recent years after the expansion of opening up.China should make use of the“The Belt and Road”platform to strengthen the top-level design of health cooperation,promote global health governance and reduce the risk of infectious diseases brought by the expansion of opening up.We will focus on combating emerging infectious diseases such as AIDS,tuberculosis and those at high risk of death,so as to effectively reduce the overall threat of infectious diseases in China.