综合指数法建立北京市手足口病流行水平分级评价体系

Establishment of the Graded Evaluation System on the Prevalence of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing by Synthetic Index Method

目的制定北京市手足口病流行水平分级标准,探索客观、实用的手足口病流行水平分级预警模式。方法采用综合指数法建立手足口病流行水平分级标准,选择手足口病病例数、手足口病聚集性疫情起数以及肠道病毒核酸检测阳性率3个指标,将其进行标准化处理后赋予不同权重,计算每周综合指数并对其流行强度进行分级。结果2015-2018年北京市209周的手足口病的流行水平可分为5个等级,从1~5强度逐步递增。其中等级1共98周(47.12%),等级2共32周(15.38%),等级3共33周(15.87%),等级4共34周(16.35%),等级5共11周(5.29%),经专家研讨制定相应等级防控建议。结论本研究初步建立了北京市手足口病流行水平分级评价标准,为北京市手足口病防控提供了一种相对客观的评价方法。

Objective To establish the graded evaluation system on the prevalence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD),so as to explore the objective and practical reporting system on HFMD in Beijing.Methods The synthetic index method was used to establish the graded evaluation system.The number of HFMD cases,the number of HFMD outbreak in clusters,and the positive rate of detection on enterovirus nucleic acids were chosen as the raw data,assigned different weights after standardization,used to calculate the weekly synthetic index and classified the grade of prevalence.Results The prevalence of HFMD in 209 weeks from 2015 to 2018 could be classified into 5 grades,the intensity gradually increased from 1 to 5 from grade.Among the 5 grades,grade 1 were 98 weeks(47.12%),grade 2 were 32 weeks(15.38%),grade 3 were 33 weeks(15.87%),grade 4 were 34 weeks(16.35%),and grade 5 were 11 weeks(5.29%).The corresponding prevention and control measures were discussed and proposed by specialists.Conclusion This study primarily established the graded evaluation system on the prevalence of HFMD and provided a relatively objective evaluation method for the HFMD prevention and control in Beijing.