农户分化视角下种植意愿及目标价格影响因素分析

Empirical Analysis of Factors in Fluencing Planting Intention and Target Price From the Perspective of Peasant Household Differentiation

基于新疆356份农户样本数据,在二元Logit回归模型基础上采用优势分析法,比较成本收益与政策环境2个维度变量对种植大户及小农户植棉意愿影响的相对重要性与差异性,并进一步探索了农户目标价格形成的影响因素。结果表明:1)成本收益与政策环境均为影响种植大户与小农户植棉意愿的重要因素,但小农户植棉意愿多受后者影响,其中补贴政策是否满意、棉花单产、补贴发放是否及时及自有土地面积的影响作用相对较大,而农业纯收入、补贴发放是否及时、地块数、是否关注政策走向对种植大户植棉意愿影响较大。2)影响种植大户目标价格形成的主要因素有棉花价格、单产及政策未来走向,而补贴发放是否及时、补贴政策是否满意及农业纯收入是影响小农户目标价格形成的主要因素。因此提出对种植大户与小农户实施差异化政策支持,建立二者互促共生机制;科学界定目标价格,不断扩宽增收渠道。

Based on 356 sample data of farmers in Xinjiang, the relative importance and difference of the effect of cost-benefit and policy environment on cotton planting intention of large growers and small farmers were compared by using the advantage analysis method based on binary Logit regression model, and the factors affecting the formation of farmers′ target price was further explored.The results showed that, 1) both large growers and small farmers′ willingness to plant cotton was affected by cost-benefit and policy environment, but small farmers′ willingness to plant cotton was affected by the latter, among which whether the subsidy policy was satisfactory, cotton yield per unit area, whether the subsidy was timely and their own land area play a large role, while large growers are more affected by agricultural net income, whether the subsidy was timely, the number of plots whether to pay attention to the impact of policy trend.2) The formation of the target price of large growers was affected by the cotton price, unit yield and the future trend of the policy, while the formation of the target price of small farmers is affected by whether the subsidy was paid in time, whether the subsidy policy was satisfied and the net agricultural income.Therefore, it was proposed to implement differentiated policy support for large growers and small farmers, and establish a mutual promotion and symbiosis mechanism between them;scientifically define the target price;and continuously broaden the channels for increasing income.