面向碳达峰碳中和目标的我国电力系统发展研判

Analysis and Reflection on the Development of Power System Towards the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,我国能源生产和消费需要加快转型,电力系统作为未来的能源枢纽,将起到关键作用。该文对我国电力系统"十三五"发展现状进行总结,分析"四个革命、一个合作"及新发展理念等指导思想下未来以新能源为主体的新型电力系统在满足电力供应、保障安全稳定、提高效率效益、优化网架结构等方面发展的重点,归纳了未来电力系统清洁、安全、灵活、高效的4个内涵特征,从电力需求增长、电源结构调整、电网格局优化、新技术应用等方面对"十四五"电力系统发展进行研判,提出基于碳达峰碳中和目标的能源电力发展计算模型,对中长期能源电力演化路径进行展望。

To achieve the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality, the transformation of energy production and consumption in China needs to accelerate. As the future energy hub, the power system will play a key role in the process of energy transformation. This paper summarized the current development status of the power system in China to analyze the key points of the development in meeting power supply, ensuring power system stability, improving efficiency and benefit, and optimizing power grid structure. These development key points faced by the new power system with high-proportion of new energy were analyzed under the guiding principles of "Four Revolutions, One Cooperation" and the new development concept. The four inner characteristics of new power systems that are clean, safe, flexible and efficient were summarized. Studied and judged the development path of the power system during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period from the aspects of power demand growth, power supply structure adjustment, grid pattern optimization, and new technology application. Proposed the calculation model for the energy-power development towards the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality, prospected the mediumand long-term energy and electricity development direction.