城市更新的财务平衡分析——模式与实践

AN ANALYSIS ON THE FINANCIAL BALANCE OF URBAN RENEWAL:PATTERNS AND PRACTICE

政府主导是中国式城市更新的一大特征,这就需要建立一个基于政府视角的财务分析工具。按照两阶段增长模型和不可替代原则,城市更新可以分为资本性投入和建成后运营两个不同阶段,二者的财务必须独立地实现平衡,不能出现缺口。就财务平衡的模式而言,从时间上,可分为单一项目的静态平衡与多项目的动态平衡;在空间上,可分为就地平衡和异地平衡。一旦分析工具选择存在问题,财务上的"伪平衡"可能导致错误决策。土地赋予了中国地方政府强大的融资能力,这是中国面对全球竞争拥有的为数不多的宝贵优势,如果错误的城市更新模式不能得到及时纠正,这一优势可能会被毁于一旦。不同的财务平衡方式,将会像当年的"土地金融"那样,导致中国城市发展的第二次"大分流"。

Government-led is a major feature of urban renewal in China,which requires the development of a financial analysis tool based on the perspective of the government.In line with the two-stage growth model and the principle of irreplaceability,urban renewal can be divided into two different stages:capital investment and operation after completion.The financial balance of the two stages should be independent,without any financial gap.As for the mode of financial balance,in terms of time,it can be divided into static balance of a single project and dynamic balance of multiple projects;in terms of space,it can be divided into in-situ balance and off-site balance.Once the choice for the analysis tool is problematic,there will be"false balance"of finance,which can lead to wrong decisions.China’s land has enabled local governments to have great financing powers,which is one of the few valuable advantages that the state has in the face of global competition.However,this advantage could be destroyed if incorrect urban renewal modes are adopted.The financial balance mode of the urban renewal can have long-term impacts on the economic performance of a city just like the land finance in the past,which can then lead to the second round of great diversion in the urban development in China.