中国兴边富民行动促进边境地区经济增长了吗?--边境地区136个县的“准自然实验”分析

HAS“THE PROGRAM TO DEVELOP BORDER AREAS AND IMPROVE THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE THERE”PROMOTED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE BOEDER AREAS?:“Quasi-Natural Experiment”Analysis of 136 Counties In The Border Areas

兴边富民行动是中国欠发达地区战略中的影响最深远、持续时间最长的系统工程。本文通过匹配边境地区县级层面的统计数据和全球夜间灯光数据,并结合理论分析,对兴边富民行动的经济增长效应进行了评估。研究发现,兴边富民行动对边境地区短期的“增长输血”效应非常明显,但对长期的“增长造血”效应不显著。进一步发现兴边富民行动虽然促进了边境地区实物资本的积累,使边境地区获得初始增长动力,但却不能弥补人力资本相对欠缺与社会资本相对挤出带来的长期增长乏力。由此启示下一轮政策的实施要促进各资本间的协调运行,积极构建边境地区的长期发展动能,大力改善边境地区生产生活条件,“因地施策”“以人兴边”。

"The Program to Develop Border Areas and Improve the Lives of the People There"is the most far-reaching and long-lasting systematic project in the development strategies for Chi⁃na's underdeveloped regions.This paper evaluates the economic growth effect of the program by matching the statistical data at the county level in the border areas with the global night light data and as well by combining corresponding theoretical analysis.The research finding reveals that"The Program to Develop Border Areas and Improve the Lives of the People There"has a very obvious effect on the short-term"growth of blood transfusion"in the border areas,but the effect on the long-term"growth of blood regeneration"is not significant.It is further discovered that although"The Program to Develop Border Areas and Improve the Lives of the People There"has promoted the accumulation of physical capital in the border areas and given the border areas the initial growth momentum,it cannot compensate for the long-term lack of growth caused by the relative lack of human capital and the relative extrusion of social capital.The finding enlightens that the im⁃plementation of the next round of policies should promote the coordinated operations of various capi⁃tals,actively build up the long-term development momentum of border areas,vigorously improve the production and living conditions in border areas,implement policies in accordance with local conditions,and prosper borders through people.