基于GM-Markov模型的船舶水上交通安全综合指数预测研究

Study on Prediction of Ship Maritime Traffic Safety Comprehensive Index Based on GM-Markov Model

为了更精确地预测船舶水上交通安全综合指数的变化趋势,以2004—2013年综合指数的数列为基础建立GM-Markov模型,对其分别进行灰色预测和GM-Markov预测;检验两种不同模型的预测研究结果的精度,并对预测值和实际值进行拟合检查;然后用2010—2019年的数据重新构造模型,预测了2020、2021年的预测值。结果表明:GM-Markov模型在短期内的预测能克服灰色预测的不足,且GM-Markov预测值曲线和实际数据曲线走势更加吻合;GM-Markov模型在船舶水上交通安全综合指数的预测上具有较高的可信度,为我国船舶水上交通安全保障的研究决策提供了一种新的方法。

In order to predict the change trend of the comprehensive index of marine traffic safety more accurately,GM-Markov model is established based on the number of comprehensive index from 2004 to 2013,and the grey prediction and GM-Markov prediction are made respectively.The accuracy of the prediction research results of the two different models is tested,and the fitting of the predicted and actual values is checked.Then the model is reconstructed with the data from 2010 to 2019,and the predicted values in 2020 and 2021 are predicted.The results show that the GM-Markov model can overcome the shortage of grey prediction in the short term,and the trend of the GM-Markov predicted value curve is more consistent with the actual data curve.The GM-Markov model has a high reliability in predicting the comprehensive index of marine traffic safety,which provides a new method for the research and decision-making of marine traffic safety in China.